Odds of a World Leader Being Assassinated? #1 - US Presidents

Being a world leader like the US President is - unquestionably - one of the most hazardous jobs in the world, as although you're surrounded by armed guards, secret service agents and are driven everywhere in a bullet-proof, bomb-resistant car, the likelihood that some disgruntled citizen, religious fanatic or gun-nut (very likely in America) will try and take a potshot at you is extremely high. So, as part of a new series Murder Mile Blog will investigate the statistics on surviving (and being assassinated) whilst serving as a world leader, whether a US President, UK Prime Minister, German Chancellor, Russian Premier, leader of the UN, Indian or Pakistani Prime Minister, etc

Part one of this blog is about US Presidents, I shall be looking into the multitude of failed and successful attempts to assassinate the (supposed) "leader of the free world", followed by the odds on a single US President surviving their term(s) in office. If you wish to compare how dangerous this job is to your own life, take a look at my analysis on your odds on simply surviving life. 

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Since 1789, there have been 45 Presidents of the United States of America, a role fulfilled by 44 men (with Grover Cleveland being the 22nd & 24th President and the only person to have served two non-consecutive four-year year terms in office).

Across the history of the US Presidency; four died of natural causes whilst in office (William Henry Harrison, Zachary Taylor, Warren G Harding & Franklin D Roosevelt), four were assassinated whilst in office (Abraham Lincoln, James A Garfield, William McKinley & John F Kennedy), and two were injured in an attempted assassination but survived (Ronald Reagan & Theodore Roosevelt). ​And yet, almost all had physical threats made on their lives, and failed assassination attempts during their time in office… with almost all killed by gunshot.

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Died Whilst In Office of Natural Causes

William Henry Harrison (9th President), served from 4th March 1841 to 4th April 1841 and died aged 68 years old. Harrison is the US’s shortest serving President, whose time in office was just 30 days, whose untimely death was caused by pneumonia, contacted in his third week – not, as the myth goes, as a result of his inaugural speech being 3hrs+ long on a cold wet day – which his doctors tried to cure with opium, leeches, snake-weed and castor oil, which (oddly enough) only made him worse. 

Zachary Taylor (12th President), served 4th March 1849 to 9th July 1850, aged 65 years old. Although rumours of an assassination attempt have proved unfounded, Taylor’s death was attributed to him contracting cholera morbus (an illness which was rampant in the US during this era) whilst eating copious amounts of fresh fruit and iced milk. 

Warren G Harding (29th President), served 4th March 1921 to 2nd August 1923, aged 57. Having been rushed to hospital with chest pains, doctors soon realised that Harding’s health was exacerbated by pneumonia (a serious illness in an era before antibiotics), and although by the evening of 2nd August he was sitting upright, listening to his wife read a flattering piece about him in The Saturday Evening Post, as she paused to plump his pillows, he said "that's good, read some more", but promptly convulsed, relapsed and died of a cerebral haemorrhage.

Franklin D. Roosevelt (32rd President), served 4th March 1933 to 12th April 1945, aged 63. A life-long chain-smoker, with a catalogue of health problems such as high blood pressure, heart disease, angina, as well as contracting polio in 1921 which left his paralysed from the waist down (a secret hidden from the American public and many key figures). Whilst convalescing at the Little White House (his presidential retreat in Georgia), Roosevelt complained "I have a terrific pain in the back of my head", slumped in his chair, fell unconscious and died of a cerebral haemorrhage at 3:55pm on 12th April 1945, whilst posing for a portrait by Elizabeth Shoumatoff; a painting which later become known as the Unfinished Portrait of FDR.

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Assassinated Whilst in Office

Abraham Lincoln (16th President), served 4th March 1861 to 15th April 1865, 56 years. On the evening of the 14th April 1865, Abraham Lincoln was watching a play – Our American Cousin – at Ford’s Theatre. During the interval, his bodyguard – John Parker – left his post standing guard outside of the state box and went to the bar to have a drink. Seizing the opportunity John Wilkes Booth (a famed actor - the Brad Pitt of his day- and a confederate sympathiser), crept in at 10:13pm and fired a single shot at Lincoln’s head at point blank range. Although mortally wounded, he remained in a coma for nine hours, but died at 7:22am, the next day.

James A. Garfield (20th President), served 4th March 1881 to 19th September 1881, aged 49 years. On 2nd July 1881 at 9:30am, Charles J. Guiteau shot Garfield in the right arm and the back as he was arriving at the Baltimore & Potomac Railroad Station. Eleven weeks later Garfield died from complications caused by an infection attributed to his injuries. Although found to be mentally unbalanced and suffering delusion, paranoia and hallucinations caused by neurosyphilis, Guiteau was executed by hanging on 30th June 30 1882, whilst claiming he shot the president out of “disappointment having been passed over for the role of Ambassador to France”.

William McKinley (25th President), serving 4th March 1897 to 14th September 1901, aged 58 years. On 6th September 1901 at 4:07pm, at the Temple of Music in Buffalo (NY), McKinley was shot twice at close range by self-proclaimed anarchist Leon Czolgosz. Although the first bullet ricocheting off a button or medal on McKinley’s jacket, the second struck him in the stomach and he died seven days later. An ensuing crowd captured Czolgosz, but they beat him so badly it was believed he wouldn’t live to stand trail, and so on 24th September, after a rushed two-day trial, Czolgosz was sentenced to death and executed by electric chair in Auburn Prison on 29th October. Although, it is uncertain exactly what his motivations were. After McKinley’s murder, Congress directed the Secret Service to protect the President of the United States.

John F. Kennedy (35th President). Served 20th January 1961 to 22nd November 1963, aged 46 years old. On 22nd November 1963 at 12:30pm, in Dallas (TX), Kennedy was fatally shot in the head by a sniper(s) whilst riding with his wife Jacqueline in a presidential motorcade through Dealey Plaza. Although Leninist Marxist Lee Harvey Oswald was arrested and the 1963-4 Warren Commission investigation concluded that Oswald acted alone, Oswald was murdered by local gangster Jack Ruby and therefore never stood trial. The assassination of JFK remains unsolved, and although there are many conspiracy theories of who was behind the killing - Cubans, Mafia, CIA, FBI, Marxists, KKK, Secret Service, or that they all/or a mix of the above worked under the orders of Vice-President Lyndon Johnson, the official files on the assassination will not be opened to the public until 2029.

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Failed Assassination Attempts Whilst In Office

Andrew Jackson (7th President). On 30th January 1835, house painter Richard Lawrence shot at Jackson with two pistols, both of which misfired, and Jackson subdued his assassin by beating his severely with his cane. Found not guilty, on the grounds of insanity, Lawrence was confined to a mental asylum until his death in 1861.

​Abraham Lincoln (16th President). In August 1864, as Lincoln was riding, unguarded, three miles north of the White House, when an unidentified sniper fired at shot at Lincoln’s head, missing him by inches, but leaving an obvious bullet-hole in his hat. At around 11:00pm, Private John W. Nichols of the Pennsylvania 150th Volunteers, a sentry on duty at the gated entrance to the Soldiers' Home grounds (where Lincoln was heading) heard a rifle shot and moments later saw the president riding toward him "bareheaded".

William Howard Taft (27th President). In 1909, before a historic first meeting a US President and a Mexican President (which also constituted the first time an American President would cross the border into Mexico), both sides were due to meet to discuss the disputed Chamizal strip. With tensions high, an additional 4000 US & Mexican troops, Secret Service & FBI agents and US Marshals were called, as well as Private C.R Moore, a Texas Ranger, who disarmed a man holding a concealed palm pistol on the procession route. The would-be assassin would have been within a few feet of Taft.

​Herbert Hoover (31st President). On 19th November 1928, whilst Hoover was on a ten-nation "goodwill tour" of Central & South America, a group of Argentine anarchists led by Severino Di Giovanni planned to blow up his train but the bomber was arrested before the explosives could be laid. Unconcerned at the reports in the papers, Hoover tore up the news story proclaiming "it's just as well that Lou (his wife) shouldn't see it".

​Franklin D Roosevelt (32nd President). On 15th February 1933, just 17 days before Roosevelt's first presidential inauguration, Giuseppe Zangara fired five shots at Roosevelt, and although he was unharmed, Chicago Mayor Anton Cermak was killed and five people were wounded. Zangara was executed on 20th March 1933, although it has never been clear who his intended target was, as Cermak was on Chicago crime-boss Al Capone’s hit-list for the shooting mob boss Frank Nitti.

Harry S Truman (34th President). Two attempts; the first in the summer of 1947, when the Zionist Stern Gang sent letter bombs to the White House, which the mail room intercepted and were defused. And the second, on 1st November 1950, when Oscar Collazo & Griselio Torresola (two Puerto Rican pro-independence activists) attempted to kill Truman at Blair House (his home whilst the White House was under renovation). Torresola was shot and killed by armed Police and Collazo survived his injuries and was sentenced to life in prison.

John F Kennedy (35th President). On 11th December 1960, 73-year-old former postal worker Richard Paul Pavlick, planned to crash his dynamite-filled 1950 Buick into Kennedy's car, but he changed his mind after seeing Kennedy's wife and daughter bid him goodbye. Three days later Pavlick was stopped by Police for a minor driving violation, and promptly found dynamite in his car. Pavlick spent the next six years in numerous prison and mental institutions before his released in December 1966.

Richard Nixon (37th President). Two attempts; the first on 13th April 1972, when Arthur Bremer balked at assassinating Nixon owing to the President having too many security around him, so a few week later Bremner later shot and paralysed for life the Alabama Governor, George Wallace. And secondly, on 22nd February 1974, Samuel Byck attempted to kill Nixon by crashing a commercial airliner into the White House. He hijacked a plane, but was shot through the pilot’s window before the plane could take-off and promptly shot himself dead.

Gerald Ford (38th President). Two attempts; the first on 5th September 1975, Lynette Fromme pulled a Colt M1911 .45 calibre pistol on Ford as he greeted a crowd, but the gun misfired. She was sentenced to life in prison but was released on 14th August 14 2009. And the second, on 22nd September 1975, just 17 days later, Sara Jane Moore fired a revolver at Ford from 40 feet away, but a bystander - Oliver Sipple - grabbed her arm and the shot missed Ford. Moore was sentenced to prison for life and was paroled on 31st December 2007.

​Jimmy Carter (39th President). On the 5th May 1979, Raymond Lee Harvey (an Ohio drifter) who was part of a four-man operation to assassinate the president was arrested carrying a starter pistol with blank rounds, moment before Carter was due to give a public speech, but – although 70 unspent blank rounds were found in his pocket - charges were ultimately dismissed for a lack of evidence. 

George H W Bush (41st President). During his visit to Kuwait on 13th April 1993*, 14 men (believed to be working for Saddam Hussein) including Wali Abdelhadi Ghazali and Raad Abdel-Amir al-Assadi planned to blow-up President Bush’s motorcade. The plot was foiled, the suspects captured, but later claimed that their confessions has been coerced. There is evidence that Directorate 14 (the Iraqi Intelligence Service) was behind the plot. President Bill Clinton subsequently launched a cruise missile attack on an Iraqi intelligence building in Baghdad.* note: Bush was not the serving president at the time

Bill Clinton (42nd President). Four attempts; the first on 21st January 1994, retired military officer Ronald Gene Barbour plotted to kill Clinton while he was jogging, but was unable to as Clinton was on a state visit to Russia. Barbour served five years in prison. The Second on 12th September 1994, Frank Eugene Corder tried to crash a single-engine Cessna into the White House… but hit a tree. Neither Clinton nor his family were in at the time and Corder was killed in the crash. The third on 29th October 1994, when Francisco Martin Duran fired 29 shots with a semi-automatic rifle at the White House from a fence overlooking the north lawn, but was tackled to the pavement by three tourists. Neither Clinton nor his family were in at the time and Duran was sentenced to 40 years in prison. And finally, in Manilla in 1996, Clinton’s motorcade was rerouted following intelligence that a bomb was under a bridge on his scheduled route. A bomb was later discovered and was discovered to have been masterminded by a Saudi terrorist named Osama bin Laden.

George W Bush (43rd President). Two attempts; the first on 7th February 2001, Robert Pickett fired from the perimeter fence several shots at the White House. Bush was in at the time but was unharmed, he spend three years in prison. And the second, on 10th May 2005, whilst giving a speech in the Freedom Square in Tbilisi (Georgia), Vladimir Arutyunian pulled its pin and hurled a live Soviet-made RGD-5 hand grenade toward Bush…but it did not explode as a red tartan handkerchief wrapped around it held the safety lever in place. Arutyunian was given a life sentence.

Barrack Obama (44th President). Three attempts; the first in April 2009, a man of Syrian origin was arrested with forged Al-Jazeera TV press credentials at the Alliance of Civilizations summit in Istanbul (Turkey), he and three accomplices planned to stab Obama to death. The second in November 2011, when a delusional man who believed he was Jesus fired a semi-automatic rifle at the White House and broke a window. Obama was not in. And the third, in April 2013, when an unknown source sent a letter containing the deadly poison – Ricin – in the post. It was intercepted and destroyed.

Donald Trump (45th President). One attempt so far; the first in June 2016 during his presidential; campaign, when Briton Michael Steven Sandford attempted to assassinate Trump by seizing a police officer's sidearm during a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada. And the second… I’m leaving space for, which is not me being cruel, but statistically it will happen. Sandford was sentenced to 12 month in a federal prison, even though he has autism. 

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Failed Assassination Attempts Whilst In Office (Injured but Survived)

Ronald Reagan (40th President). On 30th March 1981, outside of the Washington Hilton hotel, President Reagan, White House Press Secretary James Brady, Secret Service agent Tim McCarthy and police officer Thomas Delahanty were shot and injured by lone assassin John Hinckley Jr, who claimed he did it to impress teenage actress Jodie Foster. Reagan suffered a broken rib and punctured lung but returned to work (on light duties) two weeks later, but Brady suffered brain damage, was permanently disabled and died in August 2014, with his death 33 years later determined as homicide. Hinckley was released from psychiatric care at St. Elizabeth Hospital on 10th September 2016.

​Theodore Roosevelt (25th President). On 14th October 1912, Roosevelt was shot in the chest with a .38-caliber Colt Police Positive Special revolver by John F. Schrank, a saloon-keeper from New York who had been stalking him for weeks. Oddly, his 50 page campaign speech and metal glasses case which was in his breast pocket, and saved his life. Although injured, Roosevelt finished his speech with the bullet still lodged in his chest, and promptly went to a nearby hospital where the bullet – lodged between his ribs - was deemed too risky to remove, so it remained in Roosevelt's body for the rest of his life. Schrank was found legally insane and institutionalized until his death in 1943. 

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So, what are the odds of a world leader (in this case The President of the USA) being assassinated? As seen above, it's a dangerous job, so let's remind ourselves of the statistics: 

Total number of US Presidents - 44

• 4 died in office (of natural causes) - 1/11 odds of dying - 9%
• 4 died in office (by assassination) - 1/11 odds of dying - 9%
• 8 died in office (both of the above) - 1/5.5 odds of dying - 18%

Not great! That's odds of 1/5.5 or 18% chance that a US President will NOT survive their term(s) of office; even soldiers, race-car drivers and polar explorers have a higher survival rate. BUt these statistics are worse when you factor in the assassination attempts on each President (whether they were unhurt or injured)...

• 15 survived an attempt (unscathed) - barely 1/3 odds - 34%
• 2 survived an attempt (but were injured) - 1/22 odds - 4.5%
• 17 survived (both of the above) - less than 1/3 odds - 38%

• 30 known & provable assassinations & attempts - less than 7/10 odds - 68%

Meaning although there's just an 68% chance that you'll live long enough to survive your term(s) of office, but there's only any a 32% chance that you'll survive without being an attempt on your life. That's pretty shitty odds, especially for a job which pays a nominal wage... of just $1. 

Next time: Odds of a World Leader being Assassinated? #2 British Prime MInisters

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No plans for Valentine's Day or Mother's Day? Looking for a curious & quirky treat for that certain special? Book onto Murder Mile Walks. ​

​If you "enjoyed" this blog post, try; Killer Couples Part 1 & Part 2, Famous British Serial Killers - Where Are They Now? Serial Killers & Murderers Who Were Never Caught, London's Deadliest & Often Forgotten Disasters, Killers Born During a Full Moon, Killer's Star Signs, Serial Killers Who Were On TV, Celebrities Who Have Killed, London's Railway of Death, Serial Killers as Kids and the World's Weirdest Death Rituals

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Michael J Buchanan-Dunne is a writer, crime historian and tour-guide who runs Murder Mile Walks, a guided tour of Soho’s most notorious murder cases, hailed as “one of the top ten quirky & unusual things to do in London” and featuring 12 murderers, including 3 serial killers, across 15 locations, totalling 75 deaths, over just a one mile walk.